Results of an Exploratory Study to Develop a Model for Route Availability in en Route Airspace as a Function of Actual Weather Coverage and Type

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the NASA Langley Research Center in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. The objective of this exploratory study is to develop a model that relates convective weather (Wx) to a surrogate for capacity in en route airspace—ATC sector route blockage (RB). This Wx-RB model can then be coupled with forecast meteorological validation models to provide a model that translates probabilistic Wx forecasts into forecasts of fractional RB. Modeling route blockage is accomplished by statistically relating RB to Wx parameters in the form of fractional coverage of intensity, thunderstorm type, thunderstorm vertical structure, and parameters associated with Wx fractional coverage. Practical pattern classifi cation (PPC) techniques have been investigated as candidates for modeling RB as a function of Wx parameters. PPC techniques also provide an estimate of the relative importance of Wx parameters in determining RB. Results show that modeling of RB based on 2002–03 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Wx data has been accomplished reasonably well for low and high RB events (RB < 20%, RB ≥ 80%, respectively). The statistical classifi cation models for Wx events associated with mid-range RB (20% ≤ RB < 80%) require a much larger Wx data sample to be considered accurate representations of the full ensemble of Wx that can impact an ATC en route sector. weather-traffi c fl ow management integration, route blockage, air traffi c control, sector capacity reduction modeling, practical pattern classifi cation, Corridor Integrated Weather System NASA Langley iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS for both their time and interest in this project. A great deal of thanks goes out to many staff members of MIT Lincoln Laboratory for their assistance and insight. In particular, Dale Rhoda and Margo Pawlak were instrumental in the initial data collection and algorithm development efforts for the study. To Dale and Margo, the authors owe many thanks. A special thanks to Brad Crowe and Adrienne Kieldsing for their extensive analysis of the initial weather cases used in this exploratory research. Guidance from Richard Lippmann regarding practical pattern classification has been greatly appreciated. v ABSTRACT A major concern in contemporary traffic flow management (TFM) is reducing the adverse impact that convective weather (Wx) has on Air Traffic Control (ATC) en route sectors throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is currently seeking to reduce the …